ソアリング気象予報ツール(SkySight,Blipmap)の予測と、実際のフライトログ(主にOLCからダウンロード)の比較をしています。
ツールの解説はこちら(SkySight , Blipmap )をご覧ください。

June 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence
Actual Top Remarks
June 17, 2019 6,500ft 6,500ft
June 16, 2019 6,500ft blue region
2,500ft under mid cloud
7,500ft mid cloud overpredicted
June 01, 2019 5,500ft 5,000ft

May 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence
Actual Top Remarks
May 30, 2019 8,500ft 8,800ft
May 26, 2019 3,500ft 2,800ft blue
May 25, 2019 4,500ft 4,500ft blue
May 19, 2019 5,500ft 5,800ft overdevelop
May 18, 2019 4,500ft 6,300ft 14:45 above cloud
May 18, 2019 4,500ft 5,000ft 11:30-14:00
May 17, 2019 5,500ft 5,000ft
May 12, 2019 3,500ft 4,000ft
May 11, 2019 8,500ft 5,000ft 17:00 Convergence
May 11, 2019 6,500ft 4,500ft 12:00-16:00
May 08, 2019 5,500ft 5,000ft
May 06, 2019 5,500ft 4,500ft
May 05, 2019 7,500ft 7,000ft
May 04, 2019 6,500ft 6,300ft
May 03, 2019 th: 8,500ft
cv:15,000ft+
12,000ft 15:00-17:00
May 03, 2019 8,500ft 9,500ft 13:00-15:00
May 02, 2019 5,500ft 5,300ft blue, Itakura local

April 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence
Actual Top Remarks
Apr.29, 2019 5,500 ft 5.800 ft Overdevelop overpredicted
Apr.28, 2019 9,500 ft 10,400 ft
Apr.27, 2019 th : 4,500 ft
cv : 9,000ft
8,800 ft 16:00-17:00
Apr.27, 2019 6,500 ft 5.800 ft 14:00-15:00
Apr.20, 2019 5,500 ft 5,500 ft
Apr.13, 2019 9,500ft 10,500 ft big day !
South Alpls & Yatsugatake
Apr.13, 2019 5,500 ft over plain
6,500ft Tsukuba
7,500 ft
over plain &Tsukuba
big day !
Kanto plain
Apr.12, 2019 6,500 ft 6,500 ft
Apr.09, 2019 7,500 ft 7,800 ft convergence, Cu
climbed 9,000ft after 15:00
Apr.07, 2019 6,500 ft 5,800 ft
Apr.06, 2019 6,500 ft 8,500 ft blue, GFS assimilation ?
Apr.03, 2019 8,500 ft 7,500 ft
Apr.02, 2019 8,500 ft 9,500 ft
Apr.01, 2019 11,500 ft 12,000 ft

March 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence
Actual Top Remarks
Mar.31, 2019 8,500 ft 9,800 ft arrival of the convergence delayed
possibly GFS error
Mar.24, 2019 7,400 ft 8,500 ft convergence under the influence of wave
Mar.20, 2019 3,500 ft 4,200 ft TSUKUBA local
Mar.18, 2019 5,000 ft 5,000 ft TSUKUBA local
Mar.15, 2019 5,000 ft - flight data not available
Cu formation overpredicted
Mar.14, 2019 7,500 ft 8,000 ft
Mar.13, 2019 8,200 ft 8,000 ft Cu
Mar.12, 2019 6,000 ft 3,300 ft MENUMA local
Mar.9, 2019 5,000 ft - flight data not available
Mar.8, 2019 6,500 ft 7,500 ft Cu
Mar.5, 2019 4,500 ft 4,000 ft Cu
Mar.2, 2019 7,800 ft 8,800 ft blue

February 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence
Actual Top Remarks
Feb.24, 2019 4,000 ft 3,500 ft blue
Feb.23, 2019 6,000 ft 9,500 ft Cu, convergence over mountain
Feb.23, 2019 7,600 ft 8,000 ft Cu, perfect agreement 
for convergence location over the plain
 
Feb.17, 2019 6,800 ft 8,500 ft blue
Feb.16, 2019 6,500 ft 6,500 ft Cu
Feb.10, 2019 6,000 ft 8,000 ft Cu, See comment
Feb. 2, 2019 5,200 ft 6,000 ft blue

January 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence
Actual Top Remarks
Jan.27, 2019 5,500 ft 7,000 ft
Jan.26, 2019 7,500 ft 9,000 ft Cu, overdevelop

Green : good agreement
Red    :  poor agreement 
Blue   : convergence effect ?

低気圧が北海道東方で発達して冬型に近い気圧配置になり、北西風によるコバージェンスが発生していた模様
0617
 

SPAS_COLOR_201906170300-2

19061612

妻沼〜板倉での西風の吹き出しは、予報よりも遅かった
fig2
 

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