February 2020

February 2020
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Feb 29, 2020 2,500ft 4,000ft Cu
Feb 24, 2020 3,500ft over plain
6,500ft over mountain		 3,800ft over plain
8,500ft over mountain
Feb 23, 2020 7,500ft th
10,000ft+ cv		 9,000ft
Feb 22, 2020 0ft th
8,000ft cv		 cv flight data not available
Feb 11, 2020 3,500ft th
6,000ft cv		 6,000ft+ cv wave
Feb 08, 2020 5,500ft th
17,000ft cv		 10,000ft+ cv
Feb 02, 2020 3,500ft th
7,000ft cv		 7,000ft cv
Feb 01, 2020 3,500ft th
4,500ft cv		 5,000ft th
7,000ft cv		 wave

January 2020
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Jan 19, 2020 2,500ft 2,000ft
Jan 13, 2020 5,500ft th
7,000ft cv		 5,500ft mountain
poor over plain
Jan 05, 2020 5,500ft 5,400ft convergence
Jan 04, 2020 - - wave

December 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Dec 28, 2019 4,500ft thermal
7,000ft convergence		 4,200ft thermal
8,000ft convergence		 convergence
Dec 15, 2019 0 - 2,000ft low weak convergence
no flight data
Dec 08, 2019 2,500ft thermal
6,000ft convergence		 2,000ft thermal
6,400ft convergence		 convergence

September & October & November 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Nov 30, 2019 5,500ft 5,800ft
Oct 05, 2019 6,500ft mountain
2,500ft over plain		 7,000ft mountain
4,800ft over plain
Sep 15, 2019 4,000ft 3,500ft
Sep 07, 2019 4,500ft 4,800ft Cu

August 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Aug 31, 2019 - 2,700ft Cu
Aug 18, 2019 4,000ft 4,500ft
Aug 17, 2019 6,500ft 5,000ft
Aug 11, 2019 3,500ft 3,000ft Cu
Aug 04, 2019 4,500ft 4,800ft Cu

June&July 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
July 28, 2019 3,500ft 2,300ft
June 17, 2019 6,500ft 6,500ft
June 16, 2019 6,500ft blue region
2,500ft under mid cloud		 7,500ft mid cloud overpredicted
June 01, 2019 5,500ft 5,000ft

May 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
May 30, 2019 8,500ft 8,800ft
May 26, 2019 3,500ft 2,800ft blue
May 25, 2019 4,500ft 4,500ft blue
May 19, 2019 5,500ft 5,800ft overdevelop
May 18, 2019 4,500ft 6,300ft 14:45 above cloud
May 18, 2019 4,500ft 5,000ft 11:30-14:00
May 17, 2019 5,500ft 5,000ft
May 12, 2019 3,500ft 4,000ft
May 11, 2019 8,500ft 5,000ft 17:00 Convergence
May 11, 2019 6,500ft 4,500ft 12:00-16:00
May 08, 2019 5,500ft 5,000ft
May 06, 2019 5,500ft 4,500ft
May 05, 2019 7,500ft 7,000ft
May 04, 2019 6,500ft 6,300ft
May 03, 2019 th: 8,500ft
cv:15,000ft+		 12,000ft 15:00-17:00
May 03, 2019 8,500ft 9,500ft 13:00-15:00
May 02, 2019 5,500ft 5,300ft blue, Itakura local

April 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Apr.29, 2019 5,500 ft 5.800 ft Overdevelop overpredicted
Apr.28, 2019 9,500 ft 10,400 ft
Apr.27, 2019 th : 4,500 ft
cv : 9,000ft		 8,800 ft 16:00-17:00
Apr.27, 2019 6,500 ft 5.800 ft 14:00-15:00
Apr.20, 2019 5,500 ft 5,500 ft
Apr.13, 2019 9,500ft 10,500 ft big day !
South Alpls & Yatsugatake
Apr.13, 2019 5,500 ft over plain
6,500ft Tsukuba		 7,500 ft
over plain &Tsukuba		 big day !
Kanto plain
Apr.12, 2019 6,500 ft 6,500 ft
Apr.09, 2019 7,500 ft 7,800 ft convergence, Cu
climbed 9,000ft after 15:00
Apr.07, 2019 6,500 ft 5,800 ft
Apr.06, 2019 6,500 ft 8,500 ft blue, GFS assimilation ?
Apr.03, 2019 8,500 ft 7,500 ft
Apr.02, 2019 8,500 ft 9,500 ft
Apr.01, 2019 11,500 ft 12,000 ft

March 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Mar.31, 2019 8,500 ft 9,800 ft arrival of the convergence delayed
possibly GFS error
Mar.24, 2019 7,400 ft 8,500 ft convergence under the influence of wave
Mar.20, 2019 3,500 ft 4,200 ft TSUKUBA local
Mar.18, 2019 5,000 ft 5,000 ft TSUKUBA local
Mar.15, 2019 5,000 ft - flight data not available
Cu formation overpredicted
Mar.14, 2019 7,500 ft 8,000 ft
Mar.13, 2019 8,200 ft 8,000 ft Cu
Mar.12, 2019 6,000 ft 3,300 ft MENUMA local
Mar.9, 2019 5,000 ft - flight data not available
Mar.8, 2019 6,500 ft 7,500 ft Cu
Mar.5, 2019 4,500 ft 4,000 ft Cu
Mar.2, 2019 7,800 ft 8,800 ft blue

February 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Feb.24, 2019 4,000 ft 3,500 ft blue
Feb.23, 2019 6,000 ft 9,500 ft Cu, convergence over mountain
Feb.23, 2019 7,600 ft 8,000 ft Cu, perfect agreement 
for convergence location over the plain 
Feb.17, 2019 6,800 ft 8,500 ft blue
Feb.16, 2019 6,500 ft 6,500 ft Cu
Feb.10, 2019 6,000 ft 8,000 ft Cu, See comment
Feb. 2, 2019 5,200 ft 6,000 ft blue

January 2019
Date Predicted Top
th: thermal
cv:convergence		 Actual Top Remarks
Jan.27, 2019 5,500 ft 7,000 ft
Jan.26, 2019 7,500 ft 9,000 ft Cu, overdevelop

Green : good agreement
Red    :  poor agreement 
Blue   : convergence effect ?

20022412

強い冬型で西北西の風が吹き、板倉は20m/s以上の風が吹いてオペレーションできず。
筑波を離陸した機体は、筑波山（リッジ？）で7,000ftまで上げたあと、小山をつないで板倉北西で9,000ftまで上昇した。広いプラス帯ができていたように見える。
この日のサーマルトップ予想はSkysight, Blipmapとも7,500ft程度。
小山付近で弱風帯ができて、強風域との境界に5,000m以上まで続くコンバージェンスができるとの予報だったが、AMeDASでは全面強風で、ログのドリフトからも弱風エリアは観察されない。
単純なコンバージェンスなのか、ウェーブの影響なのかは要検討

スクリーンショット 2020-02-24 18.07.25

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