February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
September & October & November 2019
August 2019
June&July 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
Green : good agreement
Red : poor agreement
Blue : convergence effect ?
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2,500ft | 4,000ft | Cu |
| Feb 24, 2020 | 3,500ft over plain 6,500ft over mountain |
3,800ft over plain 8,500ft over mountain |
|
| Feb 23, 2020 | 7,500ft th 10,000ft+ cv |
9,000ft | |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 0ft th 8,000ft cv |
cv | flight data not available |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3,500ft th 6,000ft cv |
6,000ft+ cv | wave |
| Feb 08, 2020 | 5,500ft th 17,000ft cv |
10,000ft+ cv | |
| Feb 02, 2020 | 3,500ft th 7,000ft cv |
7,000ft cv | |
| Feb 01, 2020 | 3,500ft th 4,500ft cv |
5,000ft th 7,000ft cv |
wave |
January 2020
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2020 | 2,500ft | 2,000ft | |
| Jan 13, 2020 | 5,500ft th 7,000ft cv |
5,500ft mountain poor over plain |
|
| Jan 05, 2020 | 5,500ft | 5,400ft | convergence |
| Jan 04, 2020 | - | - | wave |
December 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2019 | 4,500ft thermal 7,000ft convergence |
4,200ft thermal 8,000ft convergence |
convergence |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 0 - 2,000ft | low | weak convergence no flight data |
| Dec 08, 2019 | 2,500ft thermal 6,000ft convergence |
2,000ft thermal 6,400ft convergence |
convergence |
September & October & November 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2019 | 5,500ft | 5,800ft | |
| Oct 05, 2019 | 6,500ft mountain 2,500ft over plain |
7,000ft mountain 4,800ft over plain |
|
| Sep 15, 2019 | 4,000ft | 3,500ft | |
| Sep 07, 2019 | 4,500ft | 4,800ft | Cu |
August 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2019 | - | 2,700ft | Cu |
| Aug 18, 2019 | 4,000ft | 4,500ft | |
| Aug 17, 2019 | 6,500ft | 5,000ft | |
| Aug 11, 2019 | 3,500ft | 3,000ft | Cu |
| Aug 04, 2019 | 4,500ft | 4,800ft | Cu |
June&July 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 28, 2019 | 3,500ft | 2,300ft | |
| June 17, 2019 | 6,500ft | 6,500ft | |
| June 16, 2019 | 6,500ft blue region 2,500ft under mid cloud |
7,500ft | mid cloud overpredicted |
| June 01, 2019 | 5,500ft | 5,000ft | |
May 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2019 | 8,500ft | 8,800ft | |
| May 26, 2019 | 3,500ft | 2,800ft | blue |
| May 25, 2019 | 4,500ft | 4,500ft | blue |
| May 19, 2019 | 5,500ft | 5,800ft | overdevelop |
| May 18, 2019 | 4,500ft | 6,300ft | 14:45 above cloud |
| May 18, 2019 | 4,500ft | 5,000ft | 11:30-14:00 |
| May 17, 2019 | 5,500ft | 5,000ft | |
| May 12, 2019 | 3,500ft | 4,000ft | |
| May 11, 2019 | 8,500ft | 5,000ft | 17:00 Convergence |
| May 11, 2019 | 6,500ft | 4,500ft | 12:00-16:00 |
| May 08, 2019 | 5,500ft | 5,000ft | |
| May 06, 2019 | 5,500ft | 4,500ft | |
| May 05, 2019 | 7,500ft | 7,000ft | |
| May 04, 2019 | 6,500ft | 6,300ft | |
| May 03, 2019 | th: 8,500ft cv:15,000ft+ |
12,000ft | 15:00-17:00 |
| May 03, 2019 | 8,500ft | 9,500ft | 13:00-15:00 |
| May 02, 2019 | 5,500ft | 5,300ft | blue, Itakura local |
April 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr.29, 2019 | 5,500 ft | 5.800 ft | Overdevelop overpredicted |
| Apr.28, 2019 | 9,500 ft | 10,400 ft | |
| Apr.27, 2019 | th : 4,500 ft cv : 9,000ft |
8,800 ft | 16:00-17:00 |
| Apr.27, 2019 | 6,500 ft | 5.800 ft | 14:00-15:00 |
| Apr.20, 2019 | 5,500 ft | 5,500 ft | |
| Apr.13, 2019 | 9,500ft | 10,500 ft | big day ! South Alpls & Yatsugatake |
| Apr.13, 2019 | 5,500 ft over plain 6,500ft Tsukuba |
7,500 ft over plain &Tsukuba |
big day ! Kanto plain |
| Apr.12, 2019 | 6,500 ft | 6,500 ft | |
| Apr.09, 2019 | 7,500 ft | 7,800 ft | convergence, Cu climbed 9,000ft after 15:00 |
| Apr.07, 2019 | 6,500 ft | 5,800 ft | |
| Apr.06, 2019 | 6,500 ft | 8,500 ft | blue, GFS assimilation ? |
| Apr.03, 2019 | 8,500 ft | 7,500 ft | |
| Apr.02, 2019 | 8,500 ft | 9,500 ft | |
| Apr.01, 2019 | 11,500 ft | 12,000 ft |
March 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar.31, 2019 | 8,500 ft | 9,800 ft | arrival of the convergence delayed possibly GFS error |
| Mar.24, 2019 | 7,400 ft | 8,500 ft | convergence under the influence of wave |
| Mar.20, 2019 | 3,500 ft | 4,200 ft | TSUKUBA local |
| Mar.18, 2019 | 5,000 ft | 5,000 ft | TSUKUBA local |
| Mar.15, 2019 | 5,000 ft | - | flight data not available Cu formation overpredicted |
| Mar.14, 2019 | 7,500 ft | 8,000 ft | |
| Mar.13, 2019 | 8,200 ft | 8,000 ft | Cu |
| Mar.12, 2019 | 6,000 ft | 3,300 ft | MENUMA local |
| Mar.9, 2019 | 5,000 ft | - | flight data not available |
| Mar.8, 2019 | 6,500 ft | 7,500 ft | Cu |
| Mar.5, 2019 | 4,500 ft | 4,000 ft | Cu |
| Mar.2, 2019 | 7,800 ft | 8,800 ft | blue |
February 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb.24, 2019 | 4,000 ft | 3,500 ft | blue |
| Feb.23, 2019 | 6,000 ft | 9,500 ft | Cu, convergence over mountain |
| Feb.23, 2019 | 7,600 ft | 8,000 ft | Cu, perfect agreement for convergence location over the plain |
| Feb.17, 2019 | 6,800 ft | 8,500 ft | blue |
| Feb.16, 2019 | 6,500 ft | 6,500 ft | Cu |
| Feb.10, 2019 | 6,000 ft | 8,000 ft | Cu, See comment |
| Feb. 2, 2019 | 5,200 ft | 6,000 ft | blue |
January 2019
| Date | Predicted Top th: thermal cv:convergence |
Actual Top | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan.27, 2019 | 5,500 ft | 7,000 ft | |
| Jan.26, 2019 | 7,500 ft | 9,000 ft | Cu, overdevelop |
Green : good agreement
Red : poor agreement
Blue : convergence effect ?
